Aarhus vs Sonderjyske prediction
SuperligaRound 10Vejlby Stadion
Aarhus19:00
Mon 12 Oct
Prediction T-24h
SonderjyskeMost likelyAarhus win · 60%
Best price1.57 Pinnacle
Prediction
60%1Aarhusmarket 63%
22%XDrawmarket 20%
18%2Sonderjyskemarket 17%
Aarhus-3.4 ppDraw+1.7 ppSonderjyske+1.7 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (sharp books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Aarhuspays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Sonderjyskepays 10% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.75best |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.45 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| Betvictor | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
| Dafabet | 1.54 | 4.60best | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
| Onexbet | 1.55 | 4.33 | 5.16 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57best | 4.55 | 5.53 |
| Sbo | 1.50 | 3.91 | 4.49 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Aarhus at 1.57 (Pinnacle).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Aarhus
- D2-2AH
- L0-2FN
- D2-2SIL
- L0-2FM
- L1-2RF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Sonderjyske
- W4-2RF
- D1-1LYN
- L2-5AH
- L1-3FC
- L0-3FN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Aarhus
No reported absences.
Sonderjyske
No reported absences.
Head to head
Aarhus 3Draws 2Sonderjyske 1
- AAR 2-1 SON
- SON 1-1 AAR
- AAR 2-3 SON
- SON 1-1 AAR
- SON 1-4 AAR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Aarhus
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.57last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.57last 8
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 10
- Shots
- 16.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Sonderjyske
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.11last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.92last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 11.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 13.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- Mads-Kristoffer Kristoffersen
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- Vejlby Stadion, Aarhus
Line movement
Aarhus63%
Mon 12 Oct+1.5 pp
Draw20%
Mon 12 Oct-0.5 pp
Sonderjyske17%
Mon 12 Oct-1.0 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Aarhus result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.55Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)137What's at stake (home)0.29League id119Fixture congestion (home)0.00Attacking xG form (away)1.17
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.