AC Milan vs Frosinone prediction
Serie ARound 12
AC Milan15:00
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
FrosinoneMost likelyAC Milan win · 60%
Best price1.56 Marathonbet
Oddbert's view
Most likely: AC Milan win
Oddbert gives AC Milan a 60% chance of winning.
60%AC Milan
21%Draw
19%Frosinone
In 100 matches like this, AC Milan would win about 60. In the other 40 or so, AC Milan doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: AC Milan win 60, Draw 21, Frosinone win 19.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
60%1AC MilanAC Milan winmarket 63%
21%XDrawDrawmarket 19%
19%2FrosinoneFrosinone winmarket 18%
Our model vs market
AC Milan -3.0 ppDraw +1.5 ppFrosinone +1.5 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 6 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
AC Milan meet Frosinone. The model leans toward AC Milan, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Away form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | AC Milanpays 1% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Frosinonepays 8% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.33 | 5.50best |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.80 | 5.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56best | 4.85best | 5.05 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — AC Milan at 1.56 (Marathonbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
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- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for AC Milan (60%), doesn't happen in about 40 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
AC Milan
- W2-1GEN
- L0-2FT
- W3-1INT
- L2-4BOL
- W2-0UDI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Frosinone
- L0-1CAG
- W2-0TOR
- W5-1LEC
- D4-4ATA
- W4-2SAS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
AC Milan
Absence data is not available for this match.
Frosinone
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
AC Milan
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.74last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.57last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.6last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- A. Rabiot4G 3A8 apps
- A. Cissè6G 0A8 apps
- Diego Moreira2G 3A7 apps
Frosinone
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.93last 9
- xG against / game
- 2.01last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.4last 10
- Shots
- 21.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.3last 10
- Fouls
- 14.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- A. Raimondo8G 0A9 apps
- G. Calò5G 1A10 apps
- G. Kvernadze3G 3A10 apps
Line movement
AC Milan—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Frosinone—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward AC Milan, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Away form (away). See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)2.22Expected goals (home)1.89Away form (away)2.48What's at stake (away)0.01Recent form (away)5.76What's at stake (home)0.10
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.