AC Milan vs Parma prediction
Serie ARound 14
AC Milan18:30
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
ParmaMost likelyAC Milan win · 54%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: AC Milan win
Oddbert gives AC Milan a 54% chance of winning.
54%AC Milan
25%Draw
21%Parma
In 100 matches like this, AC Milan would win about 54. In the other 46 or so, AC Milan doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: AC Milan win 54, Draw 25, Parma win 21.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
54%1AC MilanAC Milan win
25%XDrawDraw
21%2ParmaParma win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
AC Milan meet Parma. The model leans toward AC Milan, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for AC Milan (54%), doesn't happen in about 46 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
AC Milan
- W2-1GEN
- L0-2FT
- W3-1INT
- L2-4BOL
- W2-0UDI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Parma
- L1-2BOL
- W3-0ATA
- D0-0UDI
- L1-2LAZ
- L0-3TOR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
AC Milan
Absence data is not available for this match.
Parma
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
AC Milan 1Draws 1Parma 2
- AM 0-1 PAR
- PAR 2-2 AM
- AM 3-2 PAR
- PAR 2-1 AM
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
AC Milan
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.74last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.57last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.6last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- A. Rabiot4G 3A8 apps
- A. Cissè6G 0A8 apps
- Diego Moreira2G 3A7 apps
Parma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.85last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.3last 10
- Shots
- 9.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.3last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- S. Lontani3G 0A10 apps
- G. Fabbian1G 2A9 apps
- D. Romero2G 0A9 apps
Line movement
AC Milan—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Parma—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward AC Milan, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.77Expected goals (away)0.66What's at stake (home)0.17Away form (away)3.66League id135What's at stake (away)0.07
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.