ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen prediction
EredivisieRound 10
ADO Den Haag21:00
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
HeerenveenMost likelyHeerenveen win · 45%
Best price2.10 Onexbet
Prediction
29%1ADO Den Haagmarket 29%
26%XDrawmarket 24%
45%2Heerenveenmarket 47%
ADO Den Haag-0.3 ppDraw+2.6 ppHeerenveen-2.3 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | ADO Den Haagpays 8% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Heerenveenpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.35best | 3.85 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.84 | 2.03 |
| Onexbet | 3.20 | 3.96best | 2.10best |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Heerenveen at 2.10 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
ADO Den Haag
- D2-2TEL
- D1-1CAM
- L0-2TWE
- L2-3FS
- D2-2FEY
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Heerenveen
- L0-2PE
- W4-0SR
- D0-0TEL
- L2-3AA
- D2-2WI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
ADO Den Haag
No reported absences.
Heerenveen
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
ADO Den Haag
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.78last 7
- xG against / game
- 2.21last 7
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 11.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Heerenveen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.58last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 15.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 8.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 9
Line movement
ADO Den Haag—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Heerenveen—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Heerenveen result here, shaped mainly by Rest-days edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Rest-days edge-1.77Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-157Attacking xG form (home)2.14Defensive xG form (home)2.46Home form (home)0.89Attacking xG form (away)1.55
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.