Ajax vs ADO Den Haag prediction
EredivisieRound 13Johan Cruijff Arena
Ajax14:30
Sun 22 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
ADO Den HaagMost likelyAjax win · 81%
Best price1.20 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Ajax win
Oddbert gives Ajax a 81% chance of winning.
81%Ajax
12%Draw
7%ADO Den Haag
In 100 matches like this, Ajax would win about 81. In the other 19 or so, Ajax doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Ajax win 81, Draw 12, ADO Den Haag win 7.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
81%1AjaxAjax winmarket 84%
12%XDrawDrawmarket 10%
7%2ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag winmarket 6%
Our model vs market
Ajax -3.0 ppDraw +2.2 ppADO Den Haag +0.8 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 4 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Ajaxpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 1% more than the typical book | ADO Den Haagpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.17 | 7.50 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.20best | 7.20 | 12.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.15 | 7.60best | 13.00best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Ajax at 1.20 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Ajax (81%), doesn't happen in about 19 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Ajax
- D2-2TWE
- W6-1FM
- W1-0AA
- W2-1SR
- W2-0ATA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
ADO Den Haag
- W3-1SR
- L0-1PZ
- L2-3HEE
- W2-1PE
- D2-2TEL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Ajax
Absence data is not available for this match.
ADO Den Haag
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Ajax
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.00last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.39last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 18.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 9
Key players
- Tolu Arokodare8G 1A9 apps
- Oscar Gloukh2G 6A10 apps
- J. Brandt4G 2A8 apps
ADO Den Haag
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.10last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.84last 9
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.4last 10
- Fouls
- 14.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- E. Rottier2G 4A10 apps
- N. Thomas4G 1A7 apps
- Y. Eduardo2G 2A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 55,885
Line movement
Ajax—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
ADO Den Haag—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Ajax result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge1.10Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)383What's at stake (away)0.18Defensive xG form (away)1.98Recent form (away)4.99Attacking xG form (away)1.56
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.