Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
EredivisieRound 11Johan Cruijff Arena
Ajax21:00
Sat 31 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AZ AlkmaarMost likelyAjax win · 40%
Prediction
40%1Ajax
29%XDraw
31%2AZ Alkmaar
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Ajax | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Ajax
- D1-1NN
- D2-2EXC
- W5-1WI
- W5-1FS
- L1-3PE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AZ Alkmaar
- L0-2FEY
- W1-0TEL
- D1-1WI
- W3-2HEE
- W5-2GAE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Ajax
No reported absences.
AZ Alkmaar
No reported absences.
Head to head
Ajax 0Draws 2AZ Alkmaar 2
- AA 1-1 AJA
- AJA 0-2 AA
- AJA 2-2 AA
- AA 2-1 AJA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Ajax
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.33last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.2last 10
- Shots
- 22.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.4last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 8
AZ Alkmaar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.21last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.20last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.6last 10
- Shots
- 17.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.1last 9
Venue
- Venue
- Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
Line movement
Ajax—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AZ Alkmaar—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Ajax result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (away) and League id. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)1.86League id88.0Goal drought (away)1.00Pi-rating edge0.22Fixture congestion (home)0.00Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)47.9
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.