Ajax vs FC Thun prediction
UEFA Conference LeagueRound League Stage - 4
Ajax18:45
Thu 26 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
FC ThunMost likelyAjax win · 80%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Ajax win
Oddbert gives Ajax a 80% chance of winning.
80%Ajax
12%Draw
8%FC Thun
In 100 matches like this, Ajax would win about 80. In the other 20 or so, Ajax doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Ajax win 80, Draw 12, FC Thun win 8.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
80%1AjaxAjax win
12%XDrawDraw
8%2FC ThunFC Thun win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Ajax (80%), doesn't happen in about 20 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Ajax
- D2-2TWE
- W6-1FM
- W1-0AA
- W2-1SR
- W2-0ATA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
FC Thun
- W3-1HOM
- L0-1HHS
- L0-1TWE
- D2-2LP
- L0-7LP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Ajax
Absence data is not available for this match.
FC Thun
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Ajax
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.00last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.39last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 18.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 9
Key players
- Tolu Arokodare8G 1A9 apps
- Oscar Gloukh2G 6A10 apps
- J. Brandt4G 2A8 apps
FC Thun
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 9
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 9
- xG for / game
- 1.10last 3
- xG against / game
- 1.50last 3
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 9
- BTTS
- 5 / 9
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 9
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 8
- Shots
- 11.0last 7
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 8
- Fouls
- 17.8last 8
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 8
Key players
Player data from 5 of 9 matches
- Brighton Labeau3G 0A5 apps
- Fabio Fehr0G 2A4 apps
- Marco Bürki1G 0A4 apps
Line movement
Ajax—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
FC Thun—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Ajax result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.99Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)437What's at stake (home)0.52What's at stake (away)0.00Defensive xG form (away)4.02Defensive xG form (home)1.25
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.