Ajax vs Utrecht prediction
EredivisieRound 15Johan Cruijff Arena
Ajax14:30
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
UtrechtMost likelyAjax win · 65%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Ajax win
Oddbert gives Ajax a 65% chance of winning.
65%Ajax
24%Draw
11%Utrecht
In 100 matches like this, Ajax would win about 65. In the other 35 or so, Ajax doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Ajax win 65, Draw 24, Utrecht win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
65%1AjaxAjax win
24%XDrawDraw
11%2UtrechtUtrecht win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Ajax (65%), doesn't happen in about 35 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Ajax
- D2-2TWE
- W6-1FM
- W1-0AA
- W2-1SR
- W2-0ATA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Utrecht
- L2-3NN
- L2-4TEL
- D1-1PZ
- W2-1TWE
- W3-1WI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Ajax
Absence data is not available for this match.
Utrecht
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Ajax 0Draws 2Utrecht 3
- AJA 1-1 UTR
- AJA 1-2 UTR
- UTR 2-1 AJA
- UTR 4-0 AJA
- AJA 2-2 UTR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Ajax
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.00last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.39last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 18.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.5last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 9
Key players
- Tolu Arokodare8G 1A9 apps
- Oscar Gloukh2G 6A10 apps
- J. Brandt4G 2A8 apps
Utrecht
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.43last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.88last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.9last 10
- Shots
- 14.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 15.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 9
Key players
- Ángel Alarcón4G 1A10 apps
- Y. Cathline4G 1A10 apps
- Artem Stepanov4G 0A8 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 55,885
Line movement
Ajax—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Utrecht—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Ajax result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (home). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.83Expected goals (home)2.35Attacking xG form (away)1.52Expected goals (away)1.08What's at stake (away)0.05Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)232
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.