Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna prediction
La LigaRound 13
Alaves14:00
Sat 21 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Deportivo La CorunaMost likelyAlaves win · 47%
Best price2.12 Betano
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Alaves win
Oddbert gives Alaves a 47% chance of winning.
47%Alaves
27%Draw
26%Deportivo La Coruna
In 100 matches like this, Alaves would win about 47. In the other 53 or so, Alaves doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Alaves win 47, Draw 27, Deportivo La Coruna win 26.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
47%1AlavesAlaves winmarket 46%
27%XDrawDrawmarket 28%
26%2Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna winmarket 26%
Our model vs market
Alaves +0.1 ppDraw -1.2 ppDeportivo La Coruna +1.1 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Alaves meet Deportivo La Coruna. Our forecast (the market price with a small adjustment from our model) leans toward Alaves; the model's main factors are Recent form (home) and What's at stake (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Alavespays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Deportivo La Corunapays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.12best | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.05 | 3.44best | 3.78best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Alaves at 2.12 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
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Even the most likely result, a win for Alaves (47%), doesn't happen in about 53 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Alaves
- D0-0SEV
- L1-6BAR
- D1-1MAL
- L1-2CV
- L1-2AM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Deportivo La Coruna
- D0-0ESP
- W2-1OSA
- L0-1AM
- D1-1LEV
- L2-3RS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Alaves
Absence data is not available for this match.
Deportivo La Coruna
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Alaves
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.04last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.59last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 11.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- L. Boyé5G 0A10 apps
- M. Díaz2G 2A10 apps
- Angel Pérez0G 3A9 apps
Deportivo La Coruna
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.31last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.05last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 12.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Key players
- P. Aubameyang3G 2A7 apps
- Mario Soriano2G 2A10 apps
- B. Nsongo2G 0A10 apps
Line movement
Alaves—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Deportivo La Coruna—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (the market price with a small adjustment from our model) leans toward Alaves; the model's main factors are Recent form (home) and What's at stake (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (away)0.15Recent form (home)1.51Attacking xG form (away)1.55Expected goals (home)1.22Goal drought (away)1.00Away form (away)2.96
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.