Alaves vs Espanyol prediction
La LigaRound 15
Alaves17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
EspanyolMost likelyAlaves win · 44%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Alaves win
Oddbert gives Alaves a 44% chance of winning.
44%Alaves
26%Draw
30%Espanyol
In 100 matches like this, Alaves would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, Alaves doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Alaves win 44, Draw 26, Espanyol win 30.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
44%1AlavesAlaves win
26%XDrawDraw
30%2EspanyolEspanyol win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Alaves meet Espanyol. The model leans only slightly toward Alaves in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Defensive xG form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Alaves (44%), doesn't happen in about 56 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Alaves
- D0-0SEV
- L1-6BAR
- D1-1MAL
- L1-2CV
- L1-2AM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Espanyol
- D0-0DLC
- W1-0VIL
- L1-2RS
- L0-1AM
- D1-1MAL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Alaves
Absence data is not available for this match.
Espanyol
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Alaves 2Draws 0Espanyol 2
- ESP 1-2 ALA
- ALA 2-1 ESP
- ALA 0-1 ESP
- ESP 3-2 ALA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Alaves
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.04last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.59last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.6last 10
- Shots
- 11.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 10
- Fouls
- 13.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- L. Boyé5G 0A10 apps
- M. Díaz2G 2A10 apps
- Angel Pérez0G 3A9 apps
Espanyol
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.92last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.26last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.7last 10
- Shots
- 11.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.2last 10
- Fouls
- 15.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 3.0last 10
Key players
- Roberto Fernández4G 0A10 apps
- Javier Hernandez0G 4A10 apps
- Marcos Fernández1G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Alaves—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Espanyol—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Alaves in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Defensive xG form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.27Defensive xG form (away)1.22What's at stake (away)0.07Attacking xG form (home)1.06Clean-sheet streak (away)2.00Defensive xG form (home)1.71
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.