Alaves vs Malaga prediction
La LigaRound 10Estadio de Mendizorroza
Alaves21:00
Fri 23 Oct
Prediction T-24h
MalagaMost likelyAlaves win · 52%
Best price1.83 Onexbet
Prediction
52%1Alavesmarket 55%
27%XDrawmarket 25%
21%2Malagamarket 20%
Alaves-3.0 ppDraw+2.0 ppMalaga+1.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Alavespays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Malagapays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.90best |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.74 | 4.70 |
| Onexbet | 1.83best | 3.84best | 4.82 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.70 | 4.67 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.60 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Alaves at 1.83 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Alaves
- L1-2AM
- D0-0AC
- L0-1VAL
- L1-2RS
- W5-2OSA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Malaga
- D1-1ESP
- L0-1GET
- L1-3VIL
- D1-1CV
- D0-0LEV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Alaves
No reported absences.
Malaga
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Alaves
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.32last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.19last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 13.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Malaga
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.5last 8
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 8
- xG for / game
- 0.83last 8
- xG against / game
- 1.60last 8
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 8
- BTTS
- 4 / 8
- Over 2.5
- 2 / 8
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.9last 8
- Shots
- 10.6last 8
- Shots on target
- 2.6last 8
- Fouls
- 12.5last 8
- Yellow cards
- 2.8last 8
Venue
- Venue
- Estadio de Mendizorroza, Victoria-Gasteiz
Line movement
Alaves—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Malaga—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Alaves result here, shaped mainly by Recent form (home) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Recent form (home)1.97Attacking xG form (home)1.08Recent form (away)1.84Attacking xG form (away)0.76Defensive xG form (home)1.61Pi-rating edge0.16
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.