Alverca vs Arouca prediction
Primeira LigaRound 9
Alverca16:30
Sat 24 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AroucaMost likelyAlverca win · 39%
Best price2.26 Onexbet
Prediction
39%1Alvercamarket 43%
28%XDrawmarket 27%
33%2Aroucamarket 30%
Alverca-4.7 ppDraw+1.3 ppArouca+3.3 pp
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Alvercapays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Aroucapays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.38 | 3.15 |
| Onexbet | 2.26best | 3.52best | 3.28best |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Alverca at 2.26 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Alverca
- W1-0RA
- W3-1NAC
- L1-2SB
- D1-1SC
- L1-3SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Arouca
- W1-0EST
- D2-2SC
- L1-2SC
- D0-0EST
- W2-1MAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Alverca
No reported absences.
Arouca
No reported absences.
Head to head
Alverca 1Draws 0Arouca 1
- ALV 2-1 ARO
- ARO 1-0 ALV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Alverca
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.25last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.35last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.8last 10
- Shots
- 10.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.5last 10
- Fouls
- 13.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Arouca
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.16last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.25last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.2last 10
- Shots
- 11.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.8last 10
Key players
- Barbero1G 0A1 apps
- N. Djouahra0G 1A1 apps
Line movement
Alverca—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Arouca—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Alverca result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (away) and Home advantage (team-tuned). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)1.92Home advantage (team-tuned)72.9Defensive xG form (home)2.30Recent form (home)5.53Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)52.0Attacking xG form (home)1.92
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.