Alverca vs Moreirense prediction
Primeira LigaRound 13
Alverca17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
MoreirenseMost likelyAlverca win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Alverca win
Oddbert gives Alverca a 49% chance of winning.
49%Alverca
24%Draw
27%Moreirense
In 100 matches like this, Alverca would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, Alverca doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Alverca win 49, Draw 24, Moreirense win 27.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
49%1AlvercaAlverca win
24%XDrawDraw
27%2MoreirenseMoreirense win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Alverca (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Alverca
- D1-1CP
- L0-1BEN
- L0-1ARO
- W4-1FAM
- W1-0RA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Moreirense
- L0-1SC
- W2-1EST
- W3-1EST
- L0-1GV
- D1-1VS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Alverca
Absence data is not available for this match.
Moreirense
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Alverca 1Draws 0Moreirense 1
- ALV 2-1 MOR
- MOR 2-1 ALV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Alverca
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.30last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.47last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 11.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 14.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- Chiquinho2G 3A8 apps
- Vivaldo Semedo3G 0A9 apps
- D. Camara3G 0A7 apps
Moreirense
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.81last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.67last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.5last 10
- Shots
- 8.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 9
Key players
- Tiago Andrade2G 2A8 apps
- Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça2G 1A9 apps
- N. John2G 0A10 apps
Line movement
Alverca—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Moreirense—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Alverca result here; the model's main factors are Attacking xG form (home) and What's at stake (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)1.60What's at stake (away)0.02Goal drought (away)1.00Pi-rating edge0.14Defensive xG form (away)1.42Home form (home)4.19
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.