Angers vs Lens prediction
Ligue 1Round 12Stade Raymond Kopa
Angers17:15
Sat 28 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
LensMost likelyLens win · 54%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Lens win
Oddbert gives Lens a 54% chance of winning.
22%Angers
24%Draw
54%Lens
In 100 matches like this, Lens would win about 54. In the other 46 or so, Lens doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Angers win 22, Draw 24, Lens win 54.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
22%1AngersAngers win
24%XDrawDraw
54%2LensLens win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 11 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Angers meet Lens. The model leans toward Lens, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Lens (54%), doesn't happen in about 46 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Angers
- L0-2NIC
- L0-2LYO
- D0-0LOR
- L2-5MAR
- L1-5SB2
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lens
- L1-2MAR
- L1-9COM
- L0-1LIL
- W2-1PF
- L0-3CBK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Angers
Absence data is not available for this match.
Lens
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Angers 0Draws 0Lens 4
- LEN 5-1 ANG
- ANG 1-2 LEN
- LEN 1-0 ANG
- ANG 0-1 LEN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Angers
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.30last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.80last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.0last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- A. El Ouazzani2G 2A8 apps
- P. Peter2G 0A10 apps
- B. van den Boomen1G 1A10 apps
Lens
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.37last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.93last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 13.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- F. Thauvin2G 7A10 apps
- R. Aguilar2G 1A10 apps
- M. Udol2G 0A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 19,000
Line movement
Angers—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lens—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Lens, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.73Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-192Defensive xG form (home)2.21Attacking xG form (away)1.23What's at stake (home)0.17Expected goals (away)1.85
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.