Angers vs Lorient prediction
Ligue 1Round 8Stade Raymond-Kopa
Angers17:15
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
LorientMost likelyLorient win · 37%
Best price2.86 Onexbet
Prediction
35%1Angersmarket 37%
28%XDrawmarket 29%
37%2Lorientmarket 34%
Angers-2.3 ppDraw-0.7 ppLorient+3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Angerspays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Lorientpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.25 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.62 | 3.32 | 2.78 |
| Onexbet | 2.69best | 3.40best | 2.86best |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 3.22 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.75 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Lorient at 2.86 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
8.12units · 0.8% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Angers
- L1-5SB2
- W2-0ET
- D0-0LH
- L1-2REN
- W3-1AUX
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lorient
- W1-0PF
- L1-2LM
- D2-2TOU
- W1-0LEN
- L1-2ET
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Angers
No reported absences.
Lorient
No reported absences.
Head to head
Angers 1Draws 0Lorient 1
- LOR 2-0 ANG
- ANG 2-0 LOR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Angers
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.37last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.92last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.7last 10
- Shots
- 11.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Lorient
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.31last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.36last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.5last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 9
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers
Line movement
Angers—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lorient—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Lorient result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-54.6Pi-rating edge-0.37What's at stake (away)0.04What's at stake (home)0.10Rest-days edge0.00Defensive xG form (home)1.92
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.