Angers vs Marseille prediction
Ligue 1Round 7Stade Raymond-Kopa
Angers15:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
MarseilleMost likelyMarseille win · 45%
Best price2.28 Onexbet
Prediction
29%1Angersmarket 30%
27%XDrawmarket 25%
44%2Marseillemarket 45%
Angers-1.5 ppDraw+1.4 ppMarseille+0.1 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Angerspays 5% more than the typical book | Drawpays 4% more than the typical book | Marseillepays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.15 | 3.70 | 2.18 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.80best | 2.10 |
| Betvictor | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.15 | 3.65 | 2.18 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.66 | 2.22 |
| Onexbet | 3.21 | 3.76 | 2.28best |
| Pinnacle | 3.25best | 3.78 | 2.14 |
| Sbo | 2.85 | 3.24 | 2.12 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Marseille at 2.28 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
3.29units · 0.3% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Angers
- L1-5SB2
- W2-0ET
- D0-0LH
- L1-2REN
- W3-1AUX
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Marseille
- W2-0ET
- L1-2PSG
- L0-1REN
- L2-3PF
- L0-2MON
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Angers
No reported absences.
Marseille
No reported absences.
Head to head
Angers 0Draws 2Marseille 2
- ANG 2-5 MAR
- MAR 2-2 ANG
- ANG 0-2 MAR
- MAR 1-1 ANG
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Angers
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.37last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.92last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.7last 10
- Shots
- 11.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Marseille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.68last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.87last 9
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.4last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Himad Abdelli1G 0A1 apps
- Amine Harit1G 0A1 apps
- Emerson Palmieri0G 1A1 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers
Line movement
Angers—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Marseille—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Marseille result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Defensive xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-131Defensive xG form (away)4.22Attacking xG form (away)2.00Home advantage (team-tuned)38.0Pi-rating edge-0.60Away form (away)4.54
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.