Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 3
Ararat-Armenia18:45
Thu 22 Oct
Prediction T-24h
AZ AlkmaarMost likelyAZ Alkmaar win · 43%
Prediction
30%1Ararat-Armenia
27%XDraw
43%2AZ Alkmaar
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 15 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Ararat-Armenia
- L1-4SP
- W1-0UC
- D1-1UC
- L0-2CEL
- W2-1CEL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AZ Alkmaar
- L0-2FEY
- W1-0TEL
- L0-1SUN
- D1-1WI
- W3-2HEE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Ararat-Armenia
No reported absences.
AZ Alkmaar
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Ararat-Armenia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.8last 9
- Shots
- 8.3last 7
- Shots on target
- 2.4last 9
- Fouls
- 10.5last 4
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 9
AZ Alkmaar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.37last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.8last 10
- Shots
- 17.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 9
Line movement
Ararat-Armenia—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AZ Alkmaar—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a AZ Alkmaar result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Home advantage (team-tuned). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-74.5Home advantage (team-tuned)75.4Rest-days edge24.0Pi-rating edge-0.31Home form (home)7.30What's at stake (away)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.