Arouca vs Nacional prediction
Primeira LigaRound 10
Arouca16:30
Sun 1 Nov
Prediction T-24h
NacionalMost likelyArouca win · 53%
Prediction
53%1Arouca
27%XDraw
20%2Nacional
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Arouca | Nacional |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Arouca
- W1-0EST
- D2-2SC
- L1-2SC
- D0-0EST
- W2-1MAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Nacional
- L2-3RA
- L0-4FAM
- L1-3ALV
- L0-2SC
- L2-3EST
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Arouca
No reported absences.
Nacional
No reported absences.
Head to head
Arouca 4Draws 0Nacional 0
- ARO 3-0 NAC
- NAC 1-2 ARO
- NAC 1-2 ARO
- ARO 1-0 NAC
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Arouca
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.16last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.25last 9
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.2last 10
- Shots
- 11.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.8last 10
Key players
- Barbero1G 0A1 apps
- N. Djouahra0G 1A1 apps
Nacional
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.94last 3
- xG against / game
- 1.50last 3
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 10.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.9last 10
- Fouls
- 12.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Line movement
Arouca—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Nacional—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Arouca result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (away) and Defensive xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)3.15Defensive xG form (away)4.90Attacking xG form (home)1.92Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)209Pi-rating edge0.47Recent form (home)5.32
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.