Arsenal vs Lille prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 2Emirates Stadium
Arsenal21:00
Tue 13 Oct
Prediction T-24h
LilleMost likelyArsenal win · 76%
Best price1.26 Onexbet
Prediction
76%1Arsenalmarket 80%
16%XDrawmarket 13%
8%2Lillemarket 7%
Arsenal-3.3 ppDraw+2.5 ppLille+0.8 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Arsenalpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Lillepays 18% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| Betano | 1.26 | 5.90 | 11.50 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Betvictor | 1.22 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.25 | 6.40 | 12.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.24 | 6.15 | 13.50 |
| Onexbet | 1.26best | 6.49 | 14.20best |
| Pinnacle | 1.23 | 6.70best | 12.51 |
| Sbo | 1.22 | 5.32 | 8.87 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.80 | 11.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Arsenal at 1.26 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Arsenal
- W2-1LEE
- L0-3BRI
- W2-0SUN
- W1-0NAP
- W2-1CHE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Lille
- W1-0LH
- L1-2NIC
- W2-0ET
- L2-3RB
- W1-0TOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Arsenal
No reported absences.
Lille
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Arsenal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.72last 9
- xG against / game
- 0.85last 9
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 14.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Lille
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.28last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.30last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 11.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- Felix Zwayer
- Yellows / game
- 1.0
- Matches officiated
- 1
Venue
- Venue
- Emirates Stadium, London
Line movement
Arsenal—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Lille—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Arsenal result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.91Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)376Home form (home)13.0What's at stake (home)0.21Away form (away)9.29What's at stake (away)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.