Arsenal vs Manchester City prediction
Premier LeagueRound 12Emirates Stadium
Arsenal17:30
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Manchester CityMost likelyArsenal win · 56%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Arsenal win
Oddbert gives Arsenal a 56% chance of winning.
56%Arsenal
25%Draw
19%Manchester City
In 100 matches like this, Arsenal would win about 56. In the other 44 or so, Arsenal doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Arsenal win 56, Draw 25, Manchester City win 19.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
56%1ArsenalArsenal win
25%XDrawDraw
19%2Manchester CityManchester City win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
Arsenal meet Manchester City. The model leans toward Arsenal, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Fixture congestion (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Arsenal (56%), doesn't happen in about 44 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Arsenal
- W1-0HC
- W2-1SP
- W1-0LIV
- W2-0EVE
- D2-2BM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Manchester City
- L1-3NF
- W3-2RL
- L0-1BRI
- L1-2AV
- W5-1AAF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Arsenal
Absence data is not available for this match.
Manchester City
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Arsenal 1Draws 2Manchester City 1
- MC 2-1 ARS
- ARS 1-1 MC
- ARS 5-1 MC
- MC 2-2 ARS
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Arsenal
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.61last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.20last 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Key players
- D. Rice1G 4A10 apps
- V. Gyökeres1G 3A9 apps
- B. Saka2G 1A6 apps
Manchester City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.18last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.33last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.5last 10
- Shots
- 16.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 10.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- E. Haaland9G 0A9 apps
- P. Foden4G 1A7 apps
- R. Cherki4G 0A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Emirates Stadium, London
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 60,383
Line movement
Arsenal—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Manchester City—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Arsenal, shaped mainly by Away form (away) and Fixture congestion (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Away form (away)7.06Fixture congestion (home)0.00Home advantage (team-tuned)85.3Recent form (away)3.42Pi-rating edge0.55Expected goals (home)1.47
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.