AS Roma vs Genoa prediction
Serie ARound 7
AS Roma20:45
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
GenoaMost likelyAS Roma win · 69%
Best price1.40 Onexbet
Prediction
69%1AS Romamarket 72%
20%XDrawmarket 18%
11%2Genoamarket 10%
AS Roma-3.0 ppDraw+2.2 ppGenoa+0.8 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | AS Romapays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 10% more than the typical book | Genoapays 6% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 4.50 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.38 | 4.80 | 8.50 |
| Betfair | 1.33 | 4.60 | 8.50 |
| Betvictor | 1.33 | 4.80 | 8.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 5.10 | 8.70 |
| Onexbet | 1.40best | 5.30best | 9.05best |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 5.17 | 7.85 |
| Sbo | 1.33 | 4.44 | 7.05 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — AS Roma at 1.40 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
AS Roma
- D0-0COM
- D2-2INT
- W2-0TOR
- D1-1FEN
- W2-1ATA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Genoa
- W2-1FIO
- L1-2PAR
- D1-1FRO
- L1-4COM
- L0-1LAZ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
AS Roma
No reported absences.
Genoa
No reported absences.
Head to head
AS Roma 2Draws 1Genoa 1
- GEN 2-1 AR
- AR 3-1 GEN
- AR 3-1 GEN
- GEN 1-1 AR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
AS Roma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.36last 7
- xG against / game
- 0.82last 7
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 17.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Genoa
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.91last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.44last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.3last 10
- Shots
- 10.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.7last 10
- Fouls
- 9.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 9
Line movement
AS Roma—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Genoa—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a AS Roma result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)411Attacking xG form (home)5.83Pi-rating edge1.17Defensive xG form (home)3.48Goal drought (home)1.00Home advantage (team-tuned)81.8
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.