AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 2Stadio Olimpico
AS Roma21:00
Wed 14 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Real MadridMost likelyReal Madrid win · 49%
Best price1.94 Onexbet
Prediction
27%1AS Romamarket 25%
24%XDrawmarket 23%
49%2Real Madridmarket 52%
AS Roma+2.3 ppDraw+0.7 ppReal Madrid-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | AS Romapays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Real Madridpays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.87 |
| Betfair | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.91 |
| Betvictor | 3.60 | 4.10 | 1.83 |
| Dafabet | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.90 |
| Marathonbet | 3.78 | 4.00 | 1.89 |
| Onexbet | 3.88best | 4.11 | 1.94best |
| Pinnacle | 3.75 | 4.11best | 1.90 |
| Sbo | 3.16 | 3.58 | 1.87 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.80 | 1.85 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Real Madrid at 1.94 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
AS Roma
- D0-0COM
- D2-2INT
- W2-0TOR
- D1-1FEN
- W2-1ATA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Real Madrid
- W1-0VIL
- L1-2AM
- W3-2ELC
- W4-1RV
- W2-1INT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
AS Roma
No reported absences.
Real Madrid
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
AS Roma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.36last 7
- xG against / game
- 0.82last 7
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 17.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.6last 10
Real Madrid
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.43last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.00last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.3last 10
- Shots
- 17.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.3last 10
- Fouls
- 8.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Venue
- Venue
- Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Line movement
AS Roma—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Real Madrid—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Real Madrid result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)2.77Attacking xG form (home)5.83Recent form (home)5.82Defensive xG form (home)3.48Attacking xG form (away)3.27What's at stake (home)0.02
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.