AS Roma vs Sporting CP prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 6
AS Roma21:00
Tue 8 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Sporting CPMost likelyAS Roma win · 44%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: AS Roma win
Oddbert gives AS Roma a 44% chance of winning.
44%AS Roma
23%Draw
33%Sporting CP
In 100 matches like this, AS Roma would win about 44. In the other 56 or so, AS Roma doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: AS Roma win 44, Draw 23, Sporting CP win 33.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
44%1AS RomaAS Roma win
23%XDrawDraw
33%2Sporting CPSporting CP win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Match previewSummary
AS Roma meet Sporting CP. The model leans only slightly toward AS Roma in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Away form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for AS Roma (44%), doesn't happen in about 56 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
AS Roma
- W3-0SAS
- L2-3MU
- W5-2UDI
- W4-2CAG
- D3-3NAP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Sporting CP
- W1-0MOR
- W1-0SD
- W2-0CP
- L1-2AV
- L2-3LL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
AS Roma
Absence data is not available for this match.
Sporting CP
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
AS Roma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.19last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.65last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.9last 10
- Shots
- 17.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- D. Malen6G 3A9 apps
- M. Soulé2G 4A10 apps
- Rodrigo Mora3G 2A8 apps
Sporting CP
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.82last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.19last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 14.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- L. Suárez9G 0A10 apps
- I. Doumbia2G 1A10 apps
- Iván Fresneda0G 3A10 apps
Line movement
AS Roma—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Sporting CP—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward AS Roma in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Away form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.00Away form (away)11.0Clean-sheet streak (away)3.00Defensive xG form (home)1.95Attacking xG form (home)2.51Expected goals (home)1.78
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.