Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace prediction
Premier LeagueRound 14Villa Park
Aston Villa16:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Crystal PalaceMost likelyAston Villa win · 62%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Aston Villa win
Oddbert gives Aston Villa a 62% chance of winning.
62%Aston Villa
22%Draw
16%Crystal Palace
In 100 matches like this, Aston Villa would win about 62. In the other 38 or so, Aston Villa doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Aston Villa win 62, Draw 22, Crystal Palace win 16.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
62%1Aston VillaAston Villa win
22%XDrawDraw
16%2Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Aston Villa meet Crystal Palace. The model leans toward Aston Villa, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Aston Villa (62%), doesn't happen in about 38 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Aston Villa
- D4-4MU
- L0-3BAR
- D1-1FUL
- W2-1MC
- W3-1VIK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Crystal Palace
- L1-3LIV
- D1-11H
- L0-2TOT
- L0-2NEW
- D2-2BEI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Aston Villa
Absence data is not available for this match.
Crystal Palace
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Aston Villa 0Draws 2Crystal Palace 2
- CP 0-0 AV
- AV 0-3 CP
- CP 4-1 AV
- AV 2-2 CP
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Aston Villa
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.73last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- N. Jackson8G 1A10 apps
- J. Manzambi3G 3A9 apps
- J. McGinn2G 4A10 apps
Crystal Palace
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.20last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.90last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 10
- Shots
- 11.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 11.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Yeremy Pino4G 0A10 apps
- D. Kamada3G 0A10 apps
- A. Wharton0G 3A10 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Villa Park, Birmingham
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 42,824
Line movement
Aston Villa—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Crystal Palace—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Aston Villa, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.82Attacking xG form (home)1.76Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)328What's at stake (home)0.16What's at stake (away)0.16Expected goals (home)2.20
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.