Aston Villa vs Paris Saint Germain prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 6
Aston Villa21:00
Tue 8 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Paris Saint GermainMost likelyAston Villa win · 42%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Aston Villa win
Oddbert gives Aston Villa a 42% chance of winning.
42%Aston Villa
21%Draw
37%Paris Saint Germain
In 100 matches like this, Aston Villa would win about 42. In the other 58 or so, Aston Villa doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Aston Villa win 42, Draw 21, Paris Saint Germain win 37.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
42%1Aston VillaAston Villa win
21%XDrawDraw
37%2Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Aston Villa meet Paris Saint Germain. The model leans only slightly toward Aston Villa in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Aston Villa (42%), doesn't happen in about 58 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Aston Villa
- D4-4MU
- L0-3BAR
- D1-1FUL
- W2-1MC
- W3-1VIK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Paris Saint Germain
- W1-0ET
- W6-0VIL
- W5-1LH
- W2-0LYO
- W4-2BAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Aston Villa
Absence data is not available for this match.
Paris Saint Germain
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Aston Villa 1Draws 0Paris Saint Germain 1
- AV 3-2 PSG
- PSG 3-1 AV
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Aston Villa
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.73last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.83last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.1last 10
- Shots
- 14.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.7last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- N. Jackson8G 1A10 apps
- J. Manzambi3G 3A9 apps
- J. McGinn2G 4A10 apps
Paris Saint Germain
Goals
- Scored / game
- 3.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.67last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.45last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 19.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 9.6last 10
- Fouls
- 7.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 0.8last 10
Key players
- D. Doué4G 3A9 apps
- A. Hakimi3G 3A8 apps
- Senny Mayulu3G 2A5 apps
Line movement
Aston Villa—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Paris Saint Germain—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Aston Villa in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Expected goals (home) and Attacking xG form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.86Attacking xG form (home)1.76Pi-rating edge-0.65Fixture congestion (home)0.00Away form (away)11.7Home advantage (team-tuned)117
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.