Aston Villa W vs Birmingham City W prediction
FA WSLWomenRound 10
Aston Villa W15:30
Sun 15 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Birmingham City WMost likelyAston Villa W win · 45%
Best price2.20 Betfair
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Aston Villa W win
Oddbert gives Aston Villa W a 45% chance of winning.
45%Aston Villa W
24%Draw
31%Birmingham City W
In 100 matches like this, Aston Villa W would win about 45. In the other 55 or so, Aston Villa W doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Aston Villa W win 45, Draw 24, Birmingham City W win 31.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
45%1Aston Villa WAston Villa W winmarket 43%
24%XDrawDrawmarket 25%
31%2Birmingham City WBirmingham City W winmarket 32%
Our model vs market
Aston Villa W +1.3 ppDraw -0.2 ppBirmingham City W -1.1 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 9 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Aston Villa Wpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Birmingham City Wpays 3% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.88best |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.55 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.20best | 3.75best | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.54 | 2.71 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Aston Villa W at 2.20 (Betfair).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
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- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Aston Villa W (45%), doesn't happen in about 55 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Aston Villa W
- L0-1MUW
- D1-1AW
- W3-2EW
- W2-1LW
- D1-1CPW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Birmingham City W
- L1-4LCL
- L1-4THW
- W1-0CAW
- D1-1AW
- L1-2EW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Aston Villa W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Birmingham City W
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Aston Villa W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.81last 4
- xG against / game
- 1.63last 4
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.8last 9
- Shots
- 6.8last 9
- Shots on target
- 3.0last 9
- Fouls
- 6.8last 9
- Yellow cards
- 0.8last 9
Key players
Player data from 9 of 10 matches
- A. Vangsgaard3G 1A9 apps
- N. Maritz2G 1A9 apps
- L. Wilms1G 1A9 apps
Birmingham City W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 9
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 9
- xG for / game
- 1.01last 4
- xG against / game
- 1.89last 4
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 9
- BTTS
- 7 / 9
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 9
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 9
- Shots
- 11.1last 9
- Shots on target
- 3.6last 9
- Fouls
- 9.6last 9
- Yellow cards
- 0.9last 9
Key players
- Aude Waldbillig3G 0A6 apps
- N. Herron1G 2A9 apps
- L. Crosthwaite1G 1A9 apps
Line movement
Aston Villa W—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Birmingham City W—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Aston Villa W result here; the model's main factors are Expected goals (home) and Expected goals (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (home)1.98Expected goals (away)1.33Goal correlation-0.06
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.