Aston Villa W vs Liverpool W prediction
FA WSLRound 6
Aston Villa W15:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Liverpool WMost likelyLiverpool W win · 45%
Best price1.73 Pinnacle
Prediction
28%1Aston Villa Wmarket 19%
26%XDrawmarket 22%
46%2Liverpool Wmarket 59%
Our model vs market
Aston Villa W +8.9 ppDraw +4.2 ppLiverpool W -13.1 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Stale predictionPrediction as of 13 Oct 2026Predictions for this league are paused — this is the last one we made, not a live call.
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Aston Villa Wpays 9% more than the typical book | Drawpays 7% more than the typical book | Liverpool Wpays 7% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| Betano | 4.50 | 3.80 | 1.60 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Betvictor | 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.65 |
| Dafabet | 4.80best | 4.10 | 1.59 |
| Marathonbet | 4.15 | 3.85 | 1.62 |
| Onexbet | 4.24 | 3.85 | 1.64 |
| Pinnacle | 3.86 | 4.15best | 1.73best |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.80 | 1.60 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
This prediction is stale (paused league or not refreshed), so we size nothing on it.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Aston Villa W
- D1-1CPW
- L0-4THW
- D1-1BW
- L1-4MCW
- D1-1CW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Liverpool W
- L0-1MUW
- W2-0EW
- L2-4MCW
- D1-1THW
- W4-0CAW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Aston Villa W
No reported absences.
Liverpool W
No reported absences.
Head to head
Aston Villa W 2Draws 0Liverpool W 4
- LW 4-1 AVW
- AVW 3-0 LW
- LW 1-2 AVW
- AVW 1-2 LW
- AVW 1-4 LW
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Aston Villa W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Liverpool W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Line movement
Aston Villa W—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Liverpool W—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Liverpool W result here, shaped mainly by Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)1.57Expected goals (home)1.19Goal correlation-0.05
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.