Atalanta vs Frosinone prediction
Serie ARound 8
Atalanta15:00
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
FrosinoneMost likelyAtalanta win · 57%
Best price1.68 Onexbet
Prediction
57%1Atalantamarket 60%
24%XDrawmarket 22%
19%2Frosinonemarket 18%
Atalanta-3.0 ppDraw+1.9 ppFrosinone+1.1 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Atalantapays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 8% more than the typical book | Frosinonepays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.10best |
| Marathonbet | 1.63 | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| Onexbet | 1.68best | 4.53best | 5.04 |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 4.20 | 5.04 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Atalanta at 1.68 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Atalanta
- L0-2JUV
- L1-2CAG
- L1-2AR
- W1-0BOL
- W2-1SAS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Frosinone
- L0-3NAP
- W2-0COM
- D1-1GEN
- W3-2VEN
- W3-0FIO
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Atalanta
No reported absences.
Frosinone
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Atalanta
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.11last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.36last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.3last 10
- Shots
- 13.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 7
Frosinone
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 6
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 6
- xG for / game
- 1.33last 5
- xG against / game
- 2.30last 5
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 6
- BTTS
- 2 / 6
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 6
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 6
- Shots
- 16.8last 6
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 6
- Fouls
- 16.5last 6
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 6
Line movement
Atalanta—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Frosinone—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Atalanta result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Home advantage (team-tuned). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)2.89Home advantage (team-tuned)-6.19Defensive xG form (home)4.44Attacking xG form (away)2.51Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)181Rest-days edge20.1
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.