Atalanta vs Parma prediction
Serie ARound 10
Atalanta20:45
Mon 2 Nov
Prediction T-24h
ParmaMost likelyAtalanta win · 50%
Prediction
50%1Atalanta
27%XDraw
23%2Parma
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Atalanta | Parma |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Atalanta
- W3-1VEN
- L0-2JUV
- L1-2CAG
- L1-2AR
- W1-0BOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Parma
- L0-3INT
- W2-1GEN
- L1-2COM
- D1-1MON
- L0-2JUV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Atalanta
No reported absences.
Parma
No reported absences.
Head to head
Atalanta 2Draws 1Parma 1
- ATA 4-0 PAR
- PAR 1-1 ATA
- ATA 2-3 PAR
- PAR 1-3 ATA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Atalanta
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.22last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.48last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 8
Key players
- N. Krstović2G 1A1 apps
- F. Kessié1G 0A1 apps
- E. Elmas0G 1A1 apps
Parma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 0.65last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.88last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.7last 10
- Shots
- 8.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 2.4last 10
- Fouls
- 10.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Line movement
Atalanta—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Parma—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Atalanta result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Attacking xG form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)4.44Attacking xG form (away)0.63Pi-rating edge0.65Home advantage (team-tuned)-2.54Attacking xG form (home)1.56Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)126
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.