Atalanta vs Venezia prediction
Serie ARound 6New Balance Arena
Atalanta18:30
Mon 12 Oct
Prediction T-24h
VeneziaMost likelyAtalanta win · 60%
Best price1.63 Onexbet
Prediction
60%1Atalantamarket 62%
23%XDrawmarket 21%
17%2Veneziamarket 17%
Atalanta-2.7 ppDraw+2.4 ppVenezia+0.3 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (sharp books) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Atalantapays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | Veneziapays 5% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Betvictor | 1.53 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| Onexbet | 1.63best | 4.53best | 5.56 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 4.43 | 5.77best |
| Sbo | 1.45 | 4.12 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Atalanta at 1.63 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Atalanta
- L0-2JUV
- L1-2CAG
- L1-2AR
- W1-0BOL
- W2-1SAS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Venezia
- L0-2LAZ
- L2-4FIO
- L2-3FRO
- L0-2AM
- L0-2LEC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Atalanta
No reported absences.
Venezia
No reported absences.
Head to head
Atalanta 1Draws 1Venezia 0
- ATA 0-0 VEN
- VEN 0-2 ATA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Atalanta
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.11last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.36last 9
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.3last 10
- Shots
- 13.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.2last 10
- Fouls
- 12.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 7
Venezia
Goals
- Scored / game
- 0.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.10last 7
- xG against / game
- 1.87last 7
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.2last 10
- Shots
- 12.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 13.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Referee profile
- Referee
- Paride Tremolada
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- New Balance Arena, Bergamo
Line movement
Atalanta62%
Mon 12 Oct-1.3 pp
Draw21%
Mon 12 Oct+0.3 pp
Venezia17%
Mon 12 Oct+1.0 pp
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Atalanta result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Home advantage (team-tuned). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)4.51Home advantage (team-tuned)-6.19Attacking xG form (away)3.79Pi-rating edge0.82Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)202Defensive xG form (home)4.44
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.