Athletic Club vs Real Madrid prediction
La LigaRound 15
Athletic Club17:00
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Real MadridMost likelyReal Madrid win · 55%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Real Madrid win
Oddbert gives Real Madrid a 55% chance of winning.
22%Athletic Club
23%Draw
55%Real Madrid
In 100 matches like this, Real Madrid would win about 55. In the other 45 or so, Real Madrid doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Athletic Club win 22, Draw 23, Real Madrid win 55.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
22%1Athletic ClubAthletic Club win
23%XDrawDraw
55%2Real MadridReal Madrid win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Match previewSummary
Athletic Club meet Real Madrid. The model leans toward Real Madrid, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (away). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Real Madrid (55%), doesn't happen in about 45 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Athletic Club
- D1-1OSA
- W2-1RS
- W4-0GET
- L1-3LEV
- D0-0VAL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Real Madrid
- W3-0VAL
- W3-2AAF
- W3-0RS
- W2-1BAR
- W4-1RL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Athletic Club
Absence data is not available for this match.
Real Madrid
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Athletic Club 1Draws 0Real Madrid 3
- RM 4-2 AC
- AC 0-3 RM
- RM 1-0 AC
- AC 2-1 RM
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Athletic Club
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.69last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.15last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 14.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Key players
- Álex Berenguer4G 4A10 apps
- I. Williams3G 2A10 apps
- Nico Williams2G 1A9 apps
Real Madrid
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.36last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.10last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 16.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Kylian Mbappé10G 2A10 apps
- Y. Diomande4G 4A10 apps
- A. Güler3G 4A9 apps
Line movement
Athletic Club—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Real Madrid—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Real Madrid, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (away). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.98Attacking xG form (away)2.81Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-234Recent form (away)10.1Defensive xG form (home)0.93What's at stake (away)0.12
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.