Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad prediction
La LigaRound 11San Mamés Stadium
Athletic Club21:00
Sun 1 Nov
Prediction T-24h
Real SociedadMost likelyAthletic Club win · 42%
Prediction
42%1Athletic Club
29%XDraw
29%2Real Sociedad
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Athletic Club
- D0-0ALA
- D1-1ELC
- W3-0AM
- W2-0CV
- L0-2BAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Real Sociedad
- W3-2DLC
- W3-2VAL
- L0-3AM
- W3-2ELC
- D0-0CV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Athletic Club
No reported absences.
Real Sociedad
No reported absences.
Head to head
Athletic Club 1Draws 2Real Sociedad 1
- AC 1-1 RS
- RS 3-2 AC
- RS 0-0 AC
- AC 1-0 RS
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Athletic Club
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.48last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.13last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.5last 10
- Shots
- 15.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 12.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 9
Real Sociedad
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.24last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.77last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.6last 10
- Shots
- 12.3last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 10
- Fouls
- 13.1last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 10
Venue
- Venue
- San Mamés Stadium, Bilbao
Line movement
Athletic Club—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Real Sociedad—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Athletic Club result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Fixture congestion (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)48.3Fixture congestion (home)0.00Pi-rating edge0.24Attacking xG form (home)1.69Defensive xG form (away)1.70Attacking xG form (away)1.22
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.