Atletico Madrid vs Viking prediction
UEFA Champions LeagueRound League Stage - 5
Atletico Madrid21:00
Wed 25 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
VikingMost likelyAtletico Madrid win · 77%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Atletico Madrid win
Oddbert gives Atletico Madrid a 77% chance of winning.
77%Atletico Madrid
12%Draw
11%Viking
In 100 matches like this, Atletico Madrid would win about 77. In the other 23 or so, Atletico Madrid doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Atletico Madrid win 77, Draw 12, Viking win 11.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
77%1Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid win
12%XDrawDraw
11%2VikingViking win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Atletico Madrid meet Viking. The model leans toward Atletico Madrid, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Atletico Madrid (77%), doesn't happen in about 23 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Atletico Madrid
- L1-2BAR
- L0-2BM
- W2-0LEV
- W1-0DLC
- D1-1VS
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Viking
- W4-1SF
- L1-3AV
- D3-3BM
- L1-3VS
- W3-1DZ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Atletico Madrid
Absence data is not available for this match.
Viking
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Atletico Madrid
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.68last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.17last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.3last 10
- Shots
- 15.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- Álex Baena2G 3A10 apps
- Álex Grimaldo3G 1A10 apps
- J. David2G 2A9 apps
Viking
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.20last 4
- xG against / game
- 2.50last 4
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 8
- Shots
- 12.0last 8
- Shots on target
- 4.8last 8
- Fouls
- 12.4last 8
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 8
Key players
Player data from 8 of 10 matches
- Z. Tripić4G 3A8 apps
- P. Christiansen3G 1A7 apps
- E. Botheim2G 1A4 apps
Line movement
Atletico Madrid—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Viking—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Atletico Madrid, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (away) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)3.26Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)518Pi-rating edge0.83Expected goals (away)1.47What's at stake (away)0.00What's at stake (home)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.