Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction
Ligue 1Round 8Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
Auxerre17:15
Sun 25 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Le MansMost likelyAuxerre win · 47%
Best price2.23 Onexbet
Prediction
47%1Auxerremarket 45%
27%XDrawmarket 26%
26%2Le Mansmarket 29%
Auxerre+2.5 ppDraw+0.5 ppLe Mans-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Auxerrepays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Le Manspays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.45 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.60 | 3.28 |
| Onexbet | 2.23best | 3.70best | 3.37best |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.61 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Auxerre at 2.23 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
10.30units · 1.0% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Auxerre
- L1-4REN
- W2-1SB2
- W1-0NIC
- L1-3LYO
- L1-3ANG
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Le Mans
- L1-3PSG
- W2-1LOR
- D2-2LEN
- D1-1NIC
- L2-3REN
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Auxerre
No reported absences.
Le Mans
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Auxerre
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.25last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.98last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.4last 10
- Shots
- 11.9last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
Le Mans
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.7last 6
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 6
- xG for / game
- 1.67last 6
- xG against / game
- 2.31last 6
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 6
- BTTS
- 6 / 6
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 6
Match stats
- Corners
- 2.8last 6
- Shots
- 10.5last 6
- Shots on target
- 4.7last 6
- Fouls
- 14.8last 6
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 6
Venue
- Venue
- Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre
Line movement
Auxerre—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Le Mans—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Auxerre result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (away) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)1.87Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)171What's at stake (away)0.15Attacking xG form (home)1.35Defensive xG form (away)2.23Recent form (away)3.47
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.