AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva prediction
UEFA Europa LeagueRound League Stage - 2AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
AZ Alkmaar18:45
Thu 15 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Hapoel Beer ShevaMost likelyAZ Alkmaar win · 73%
Best price1.34 Betano
Prediction
73%1AZ Alkmaarmarket 75%
17%XDrawmarket 16%
10%2Hapoel Beer Shevamarket 9%
AZ Alkmaar-2.1 ppDraw+1.3 ppHapoel Beer Sheva+0.8 pp
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (1 sharp book) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 15 Oct 2026
Match previewAI · grounded
In this UEFA Europa League encounter, AZ Alkmaar prepares to host Hapoel Beer Sheva in what marks the first recorded meeting between the two clubs. The model presents a distinct outlook on this matchup, assigning AZ Alkmaar a 73% probability of victory. The likelihood of a draw is calculated at 17%, while Hapoel Beer Sheva’s probability of securing a win stands at 10%. While the model shows a clear preference for the home side, it is worth noting that it sits slightly below current market pricing regarding AZ Alkmaar’s prospects. Several quantitative indicators underpin these figures. The model’s confidence in AZ Alkmaar is driven by their attacking expected goals (xG) form at home, combined with an assessment of the Elo rating difference that incorporates team-tuned home-field advantage. Additionally, the away defensive xG form of Hapoel Beer Sheva also supports the model’s lean toward the hosts. Examining recent performances, the paths taken by both sides differ. AZ Alkmaar enters the match with a mixed run of results, showing a form sequence of Loss, Win, Loss, Draw, Win. Conversely, Hapoel Beer Sheva shows a more positive recent trend, recording a sequence of Draw, Loss, Win, Win, Win. Regarding squad availability, there are no reported injuries for either side at this time. However, it is important to note that because confirmed lineups have not been released, these figures do not account for potential squad rotation or the resting of key players. The absence of reported injuries should not be interpreted as an indication that either side is fielding its full complement of starters.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | AZ Alkmaarpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 5% more than the typical book | Hapoel Beer Shevapays 8% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.34best | 5.80best | 9.25 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.30 | 5.75 | 9.70best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — AZ Alkmaar at 1.34 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
AZ Alkmaar
- L0-2FEY
- W1-0TEL
- L0-1SUN
- D1-1WI
- W3-2HEE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Hapoel Beer Sheva
- D0-0DZ
- L2-5SF
- W2-1SF
- W2-0FCZ
- W1-0FCZ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
AZ Alkmaar
No reported absences.
Hapoel Beer Sheva
No reported absences.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
AZ Alkmaar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.37last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.8last 10
- Shots
- 17.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.7last 10
- Fouls
- 11.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 9
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.7last 10
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.0last 7
- Shots
- 12.2last 6
- Shots on target
- 4.1last 7
- Fouls
- 10.0last 4
- Yellow cards
- 2.9last 8
Referee profile
- Referee
- Radoslav Gidzhenov
- Yellows / game
- —
- Matches officiated
- 0
Venue
- Venue
- AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar
Line movement
AZ Alkmaar—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Hapoel Beer Sheva—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model assigns a 73% probability of victory to AZ Alkmaar, with the draw at 17% and an Hapoel Beer Sheva win at 10%. This preference is largely driven by AZ Alkmaar's attacking expected goals (xG) form at home, combined with their superior Elo rating adjusted for home-field advantage. Additionally, the model accounts for Hapoel Beer Sheva’s away defensive xG metrics, which further supports the lean toward the hosts. While these sides have no prior head-to-head history and no injuries have been reported for either squad, the model currently estimates a probability for AZ Alkmaar that sits slightly below the broader market pricing.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (away)5.23Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)280Attacking xG form (home)1.68Pi-rating edge0.64Home form (home)8.51What's at stake (home)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.