AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
EredivisieRound 15AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）
AZ Alkmaar20:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
PSV EindhovenMost likelyPSV Eindhoven win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: PSV Eindhoven win
Oddbert gives PSV Eindhoven a 49% chance of winning.
31%AZ Alkmaar
20%Draw
49%PSV Eindhoven
In 100 matches like this, PSV Eindhoven would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, PSV Eindhoven doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: AZ Alkmaar win 31, Draw 20, PSV Eindhoven win 49.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
31%1AZ AlkmaarAZ Alkmaar win
20%XDrawDraw
49%2PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for PSV Eindhoven (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
AZ Alkmaar
- W4-3GRO
- L1-2JUV
- L0-1AJA
- L0-2TWE
- W4-0ARA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
PSV Eindhoven
- W5-2CAM
- L1-2CBK
- W7-0WI
- D1-1FEY
- W1-0FP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
AZ Alkmaar
Absence data is not available for this match.
PSV Eindhoven
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
AZ Alkmaar 0Draws 1PSV Eindhoven 3
- PE 2-1 AA
- AA 1-5 PE
- PE 2-2 AA
- AA 1-2 PE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
AZ Alkmaar
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.93last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.38last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.5last 10
- Shots
- 14.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- M. Meerdink7G 1A10 apps
- Weslley Patati2G 1A7 apps
- V. Byskov1G 2A9 apps
PSV Eindhoven
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.13last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.67last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.2last 10
- Shots
- 18.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 10
Key players
- S. Mijnans8G 2A9 apps
- G. Til6G 1A10 apps
- E. Bajraktarevic0G 5A8 apps
Venue
- Venue
- AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 19,500
Line movement
AZ Alkmaar—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
PSV Eindhoven—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a PSV Eindhoven result here; the model's main factors are Pi-rating edge and Expected goals (away). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.55Expected goals (away)2.31Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-65.9League id88.0Expected goals (home)1.48Home advantage (team-tuned)68.2
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.