Bay FC W vs Portland Thorns W prediction
NWSL WomenRound Group Stage
Bay FC W23:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Portland Thorns WMost likelyPortland Thorns W win · 50%
Best price2.32 Betano
Prediction
28%1Bay FC Wmarket 36%
22%XDrawmarket 24%
50%2Portland Thorns Wmarket 40%
Our model vs market
Bay FC W -8.1 ppDraw -2.1 ppPortland Thorns W +10.1 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Stale predictionPrediction as of 13 Oct 2026Predictions for this league are paused — this is the last one we made, not a live call.
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Bay FC Wpays 2% more than the typical book | Drawpays 10% more than the typical book | Portland Thorns Wpays 1% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betano | 2.52best | 3.80 | 2.32best |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Betvictor | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 3.54 | 2.29 |
| Onexbet | 2.48 | 3.54 | 2.29 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.91best | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
This prediction is stale (paused league or not refreshed), so we size nothing on it.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bay FC W
- L1-5KCW
- L1-3OPW
- W2-0RLW
- D2-2DSW
- L0-2SRF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Portland Thorns W
- L2-4BLW
- D1-1HDW
- W4-1OPW
- D1-1CRS
- L1-2WSW
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bay FC W
No reported absences.
Portland Thorns W
No reported absences.
Head to head
Bay FC W 2Draws 0Portland Thorns W 3
- PTW 2-0 BFW
- PTW 2-1 BFW
- BFW 1-0 PTW
- PTW 1-3 BFW
- BFW 2-3 PTW
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bay FC W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Portland Thorns W
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.9last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 9 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Line movement
Bay FC W—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Portland Thorns W—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Portland Thorns W result here, shaped mainly by Expected goals (away) and Expected goals (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Expected goals (away)1.61Expected goals (home)1.14Goal correlation0.12
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.