Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction
BundesligaRound 12
Bayer Leverkusen15:30
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Borussia MönchengladbachMost likelyBayer Leverkusen win · 58%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Bayer Leverkusen win
Oddbert gives Bayer Leverkusen a 58% chance of winning.
58%Bayer Leverkusen
23%Draw
19%Borussia Mönchengladbach
In 100 matches like this, Bayer Leverkusen would win about 58. In the other 42 or so, Bayer Leverkusen doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Bayer Leverkusen win 58, Draw 23, Borussia Mönchengladbach win 19.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
58%1Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen win
23%XDrawDraw
19%2Borussia MönchengladbachBorussia Mönchengladbach win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Bayer Leverkusen meet Borussia Mönchengladbach. The model leans toward Bayer Leverkusen, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Bayer Leverkusen (58%), doesn't happen in about 42 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bayer Leverkusen
- W2-11FK
- L0-1MAR
- L2-4VS
- L0-31H
- W2-0OFI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- L1-3HS
- D0-0SP0
- W3-2VS
- L1-21H
- L1-21FK
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bayer Leverkusen
Absence data is not available for this match.
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Bayer Leverkusen 2Draws 2Borussia Mönchengladbach 0
- BM 1-1 BL
- BL 1-1 BM
- BL 3-1 BM
- BM 2-3 BL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bayer Leverkusen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.17last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.54last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 10
- Shots
- 17.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- P. Schick7G 1A10 apps
- I. Maza3G 2A9 apps
- Aleix García1G 3A10 apps
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.59last 10
- xG against / game
- 2.12last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.0last 10
- Shots
- 14.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 14.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 3.0last 10
Key players
- J. Scally3G 2A10 apps
- W. Mohya2G 2A10 apps
- H. Bolin3G 0A8 apps
Line movement
Bayer Leverkusen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Borussia Mönchengladbach—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Bayer Leverkusen, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge1.11Attacking xG form (home)1.74Fixture congestion (home)0.00Expected goals (home)2.72Defensive xG form (home)1.80What's at stake (home)0.17
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.