Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction
BundesligaRound 6
Bayer Leverkusen15:30
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
SC FreiburgMost likelyBayer Leverkusen win · 54%
Best price1.75 Onexbet
Prediction
54%1Bayer Leverkusenmarket 57%
24%XDrawmarket 22%
22%2SC Freiburgmarket 21%
Bayer Leverkusen-3.0 ppDraw+2.2 ppSC Freiburg+0.8 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Bayer Leverkusenpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 3% more than the typical book | SC Freiburgpays 7% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.33 |
| Betano | 1.70 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| Betvictor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.71 | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| Onexbet | 1.75best | 4.42best | 4.62best |
| Pinnacle | 1.73 | 4.37 | 4.23 |
| Sbo | 1.61 | 3.87 | 4.01 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.40 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Bayer Leverkusen at 1.75 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bayer Leverkusen
- W4-3FM0
- W2-0RL
- D2-2FA
- W4-0UB
- L2-3SE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
SC Freiburg
- W2-1FS0
- D2-2EF
- W5-0BM
- W1-0SP0
- W4-1WB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bayer Leverkusen
No reported absences.
SC Freiburg
No reported absences.
Head to head
Bayer Leverkusen 2Draws 2SC Freiburg 0
- SF 3-3 BL
- BL 2-0 SF
- SF 2-2 BL
- BL 5-1 SF
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bayer Leverkusen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.50last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.70last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.7last 10
- Shots
- 20.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.7last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.5last 10
SC Freiburg
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.55last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.30last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 13.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 9.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.2last 10
Line movement
Bayer Leverkusen—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
SC Freiburg—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Bayer Leverkusen result here, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Attacking xG form (home). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge0.70Attacking xG form (home)2.32Recent form (away)7.81Defensive xG form (away)0.80Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)120Recent form (home)7.56
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.