Belgium vs Italy prediction
UEFA Nations LeagueRound League A - 6
Belgium20:45
Sun 15 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
ItalyMost likelyBelgium win · 45%
Best price2.15 Betfair
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Belgium win
Oddbert gives Belgium a 45% chance of winning.
45%Belgium
26%Draw
29%Italy
In 100 matches like this, Belgium would win about 45. In the other 55 or so, Belgium doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Belgium win 45, Draw 26, Italy win 29.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
45%1BelgiumBelgium winmarket 44%
26%XDrawDrawmarket 27%
29%2ItalyItaly winmarket 29%
Our model vs market
Belgium +0.9 ppDraw -0.5 ppItaly -0.4 pp
Our blended model differs from the price here. This is our own view, not a validated edge — we show it openly, but we don't claim it beats the market until it has done so out-of-time.
Market-anchored: the market's vig-free price (median of 3 books) + model lean (max ±15 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Belgium meet Italy. Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans only slightly toward Belgium in what is close to a toss-up; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
The highlighted price is the highest among the bookmakers with a Danish licence.
Words explained:
| Bookmaker | Belgium | Draw | Italy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.15best | 3.40best | 3.20best |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Belgium at 2.15 (Betfair).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
Not sized — the model behind this prediction has not beaten the closing market out-of-time (see Transparency). We don't size stakes off an edge we don't claim to have.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for Belgium (45%), doesn't happen in about 55 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Belgium
- L1-4FRA
- W3-0TRK
- L0-1FRA
- W2-0ITA
- L1-2SPA
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Italy
- W3-1TRK
- D1-1FRA
- W4-1TRK
- L0-2BEL
- W1-0GRE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Belgium
Absence data is not available for this match.
Italy
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Belgium 1Draws 1Italy 4
- ITA 0-2 BEL
- BEL 0-1 ITA
- ITA 2-2 BEL
- ITA 2-1 BEL
- BEL 1-2 ITA
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Belgium
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Key players
- C. De Ketelaere3G 3A9 apps
- R. Lukaku4G 1A9 apps
- K. De Bruyne3G 1A8 apps
Italy
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 3 / 10
Key players
- F. Esposito6G 1A10 apps
- A. Bastoni2G 0A6 apps
- M. Kean2G 0A4 apps
Line movement
Belgium—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Italy—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast (a blend of the market price and our model) leans only slightly toward Belgium in what is close to a toss-up; the model's main factors are International Elo (home) and Home advantage (Elo points). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
International Elo (home)1872Home advantage (Elo points)80.0
This is a market-anchored baseline, not our full model: the forecast is mostly the bookmakers' price with the margin removed, plus a small share from our own simple model. The factors above describe that share only. A baseline claims no edge over the market.