Benfica vs Alverca prediction
Primeira LigaRound 10
Benfica21:15
Mon 2 Nov
Prediction T-24h
AlvercaMost likelyBenfica win · 65%
Prediction
65%1Benfica
23%XDraw
12%2Alverca
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 14 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
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Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Benfica
- W2-0VS
- L1-3FP
- W3-1GV
- W4-0MOR
- W3-0MAR
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Alverca
- W4-1FAM
- W1-0RA
- W3-1NAC
- L1-2SB
- D1-1SC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Benfica
No reported absences.
Alverca
No reported absences.
Head to head
Benfica 2Draws 0Alverca 0
- BEN 2-1 ALV
- ALV 1-2 BEN
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Benfica
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.9last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.66last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.67last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 9 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 7.9last 10
- Shots
- 20.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.1last 10
- Fouls
- 11.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Georgiy Sudakov1G 0A1 apps
- Samuel Dahl1G 0A1 apps
- C. Echeverri0G 1A1 apps
Alverca
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.4last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.49last 9
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 9
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 11.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.5last 10
- Fouls
- 14.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 10
Key players
- Vivaldo Semedo1G 0A1 apps
- André Vidigal1G 0A1 apps
- Figueiredo1G 0A1 apps
Line movement
Benfica—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Alverca—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Benfica result here, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)350Pi-rating edge1.30Defensive xG form (home)0.68Attacking xG form (home)2.18Fixture congestion (home)0.00Defensive xG form (away)1.96
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.