Birmingham vs QPR prediction
ChampionshipRound 11
Birmingham16:00
Sat 17 Oct
Prediction T-24h
QPRMost likelyBirmingham win · 50%
Best price2.01 Dafabet
Prediction
50%1Birminghammarket 48%
27%XDrawmarket 26%
23%2QPRmarket 26%
Birmingham+2.2 ppDraw+0.8 ppQPR-3.0 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Birmingham | Draw | QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 2.01best | 3.60best | 3.65best |
| Onexbet | 1.99 | 3.45 | 3.56 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Birmingham at 2.01 (Dafabet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
2.31units · 0.2% of bankroll
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Birmingham
- W1-0WB
- D2-2MID
- W2-1DER
- L1-2NOR
- D2-2WOL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
QPR
- D1-1WH
- D2-2PRE
- D1-1WB
- D0-0CHA
- L0-1MID
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Birmingham
No reported absences.
QPR
No reported absences.
Head to head
Birmingham 1Draws 0QPR 1
- BIR 1-0 QPR
- QPR 2-1 BIR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Birmingham
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.76last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.28last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 8 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.6last 10
- Shots
- 13.4last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 12.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.6last 9
QPR
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.47last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.36last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.8last 10
- Shots
- 15.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 9.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.8last 10
Line movement
Birmingham—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
QPR—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Birmingham result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)2.00Pi-rating edge0.34Defensive xG form (home)1.57Home form (home)5.92League id40.0Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)207
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.