Bologna vs AS Roma prediction
Serie ARound 14
Bologna18:30
Sun 6 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
AS RomaMost likelyAS Roma win · 51%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: AS Roma win
Oddbert gives AS Roma a 51% chance of winning.
25%Bologna
24%Draw
51%AS Roma
In 100 matches like this, AS Roma would win about 51. In the other 49 or so, AS Roma doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Bologna win 25, Draw 24, AS Roma win 51.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Prediction
25%1BolognaBologna win
24%XDrawDraw
51%2AS RomaAS Roma win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
Guess the match
Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
Your guesses are saved in this browser only.
Match previewSummary
Bologna meet AS Roma. The model leans toward AS Roma, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Attacking xG form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Thinking of betting on this match?Help and breaks
Oddbert takes no bets and doesn't link to bookmakers.
Gambling comes at a cost. The bookmaker's margin means bettors as a whole lose over time.
At the bookmaker
- Only bookmakers with a Danish licence may offer betting in Denmark.
- You must be 18+ and register with MitID.
- You must set a deposit limit. Choose an amount you can afford to lose.
Even the most likely result, a win for AS Roma (51%), doesn't happen in about 49 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bologna
- W2-1PAR
- W2-1MON
- W4-2AM
- W2-0CAG
- L1-3INT
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
AS Roma
- W3-0SAS
- L2-3MU
- W5-2UDI
- W4-2CAG
- D3-3NAP
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bologna
Absence data is not available for this match.
AS Roma
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Bologna 2Draws 2AS Roma 2
- BOL 0-2 AR
- AR 3-4 BOL
- BOL 1-1 AR
- AR 1-0 BOL
- BOL 2-2 AR
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bologna
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.60last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.42last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 13.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.5last 10
- Fouls
- 12.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- Juan Miranda0G 5A9 apps
- F. Bernardeschi3G 0A10 apps
- S. Mbangula3G 0A6 apps
AS Roma
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.8last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.19last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.65last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.9last 10
- Shots
- 17.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 6.2last 10
- Fouls
- 10.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 10
Key players
- D. Malen6G 3A9 apps
- M. Soulé2G 4A10 apps
- Rodrigo Mora3G 2A8 apps
Line movement
Bologna—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
AS Roma—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward AS Roma, shaped mainly by Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Attacking xG form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-152Attacking xG form (home)2.07Home advantage (team-tuned)-0.95Pi-rating edge-0.65Recent form (home)8.40Recent form (away)6.43
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.