Bolton vs Blackburn prediction
ChampionshipRound 19Toughsheet Community Stadium
Bolton13:30
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BlackburnMost likelyBlackburn win · 49%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Blackburn win
Oddbert gives Blackburn a 49% chance of winning.
31%Bolton
20%Draw
49%Blackburn
In 100 matches like this, Blackburn would win about 49. In the other 51 or so, Blackburn doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Bolton win 31, Draw 20, Blackburn win 49.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
31%1BoltonBolton win
20%XDrawDraw
49%2BlackburnBlackburn win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Saves the match under My matches in this browserGuess the result — no money, no points. After the match you'll see your guess next to Oddbert's chance and the result.
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Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Blackburn (49%), doesn't happen in about 51 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bolton
- L1-3DER
- W1-0CHA
- L2-3BC
- L1-5MID
- D0-0SOU
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Blackburn
- W2-1WH
- L1-2SC
- L0-4SWA
- W2-0WRE
- L2-3WB
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bolton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Blackburn
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bolton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.37last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.90last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.6last 10
- Shots
- 14.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.9last 10
- Fouls
- 10.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.7last 10
Key players
- Gaizka Larrazabal1G 4A10 apps
- S. Dalby4G 0A10 apps
- Ruben Rodrigues2G 1A10 apps
Blackburn
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.6last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.10last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.70last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.9last 10
- Shots
- 11.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.8last 10
- Fouls
- 11.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Key players
- A. Guðjohnsen8G 0A9 apps
- O. Afolayan5G 1A10 apps
- Kristi Montgomery1G 1A9 apps
Venue
- Venue
- Toughsheet Community Stadium, Bolton
- Surface
- Grass
- Capacity
- 28,723
Line movement
Bolton—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Blackburn—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
Our forecast favours a Blackburn result here; the model's main factors are Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage) and Home advantage (team-tuned). The numbers come from our forecast — the prose only narrates them.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)-170Home advantage (team-tuned)12.6Expected goals (away)1.38What's at stake (home)0.20Expected goals (home)1.40Attacking xG form (home)1.18
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.