Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
BundesligaRound 11
Borussia Dortmund19:30
Sun 29 Nov
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Bayer LeverkusenMost likelyBorussia Dortmund win · 56%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Borussia Dortmund win
Oddbert gives Borussia Dortmund a 56% chance of winning.
56%Borussia Dortmund
24%Draw
20%Bayer Leverkusen
In 100 matches like this, Borussia Dortmund would win about 56. In the other 44 or so, Borussia Dortmund doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Borussia Dortmund win 56, Draw 24, Bayer Leverkusen win 20.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
56%1Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund win
24%XDrawDraw
20%2Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 13 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Borussia Dortmund meet Bayer Leverkusen. The model leans toward Borussia Dortmund, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Borussia Dortmund (56%), doesn't happen in about 44 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Borussia Dortmund
- W2-1SE
- W2-1RB
- D2-2BM
- W1-0EF
- W2-1SF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Bayer Leverkusen
- W2-11FK
- L0-1MAR
- L2-4VS
- L0-31H
- W2-0OFI
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Borussia Dortmund
Absence data is not available for this match.
Bayer Leverkusen
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Borussia Dortmund 2Draws 0Bayer Leverkusen 2
- BD 0-1 BL
- BL 1-2 BD
- BL 2-4 BD
- BD 2-3 BL
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Borussia Dortmund
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.5last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.79last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.32last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 5 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.5last 10
- Shots
- 15.5last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.8last 10
- Fouls
- 10.8last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- Fábio Silva3G 3A10 apps
- F. Nmecha4G 0A10 apps
- S. Guirassy3G 1A9 apps
Bayer Leverkusen
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.0last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.3last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.17last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.54last 10
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 6 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.4last 10
- Shots
- 17.6last 10
- Shots on target
- 7.1last 10
- Fouls
- 12.3last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Key players
- P. Schick7G 1A10 apps
- I. Maza3G 2A9 apps
- Aleix García1G 3A10 apps
Line movement
Borussia Dortmund—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Bayer Leverkusen—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans toward Borussia Dortmund, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (home) and Pi-rating edge. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (home)2.04Pi-rating edge0.45What's at stake (away)0.17Expected goals (home)2.04Home form (home)11.1Recent form (home)8.77
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.