Bournemouth vs Brighton prediction
Premier LeagueRound 13
Bournemouth21:00
Wed 2 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
BrightonMost likelyBournemouth win · 43%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Bournemouth win
Oddbert gives Bournemouth a 43% chance of winning.
43%Bournemouth
26%Draw
31%Brighton
In 100 matches like this, Bournemouth would win about 43. In the other 57 or so, Bournemouth doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Bournemouth win 43, Draw 26, Brighton win 31.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
43%1BournemouthBournemouth win
26%XDrawDraw
31%2BrightonBrighton win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Bournemouth meet Brighton. The model leans only slightly toward Bournemouth in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Recent form (home). See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Bournemouth (43%), doesn't happen in about 57 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bournemouth
- W2-1IPS
- W3-1SP
- W2-0LEE
- W3-0MU
- W3-0AM
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Brighton
- W2-0BRE
- W1-0GET
- W1-0MC
- L0-2LIV
- D0-0FJ
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bournemouth
Absence data is not available for this match.
Brighton
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Bournemouth 1Draws 1Brighton 2
- BRI 1-1 BOU
- BOU 2-1 BRI
- BRI 2-1 BOU
- BOU 1-2 BRI
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bournemouth
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.1last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.9last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.25last 9
- xG against / game
- 0.95last 9
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 4 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 15.8last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.2last 10
- Fouls
- 14.4last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.4last 10
Key players
- Evanilson7G 2A10 apps
- Rayan4G 0A10 apps
- J. Kluivert2G 2A7 apps
Brighton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 0.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.87last 10
- xG against / game
- 0.89last 10
- Clean sheets
- 9 / 10
- BTTS
- 0 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.6last 10
- Shots
- 18.2last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.0last 10
- Fouls
- 11.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.3last 9
Key players
- P. Groß3G 4A10 apps
- C. Kostoulas3G 2A7 apps
- G. Rutter2G 2A9 apps
Line movement
Bournemouth—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Brighton—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Bournemouth in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by What's at stake (home) and Recent form (home). This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
What's at stake (home)0.14Recent form (home)9.64Pi-rating edge0.03Recent form (away)7.47Defensive xG form (home)1.04Fixture congestion (home)0.00
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.