Bournemouth vs Leeds prediction
Premier LeagueRound 9
Bournemouth16:00
Sat 31 Oct
Prediction T-24h
LeedsMost likelyBournemouth win · 36%
Prediction
37%1Bournemouth
28%XDraw
35%2Leeds
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Bournemouth | Leeds |
|---|
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
No best price is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bournemouth
- L1-5CHE
- L0-1LIV
- D2-2BRE
- D2-2NEW
- D1-1EVE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Leeds
- L1-2ARS
- D0-0CP
- W4-1NEW
- D1-1BRI
- D1-1BRE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bournemouth
No reported absences.
Leeds
No reported absences.
Head to head
Bournemouth 0Draws 2Leeds 0
- BOU 2-2 LEE
- LEE 2-2 BOU
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bournemouth
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.43last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.35last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 13.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Leeds
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.0last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.35last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.66last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 12.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.9last 10
- Fouls
- 11.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.0last 10
Line movement
Bournemouth—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Leeds—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Bournemouth result here, shaped mainly by Fixture congestion (home) and League id. The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Fixture congestion (home)0.00League id39.0Defensive xG form (away)1.69Recent form (away)3.53Attacking xG form (away)1.62Pi-rating edge-0.07
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.