Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction
Premier LeagueRound 7
Bournemouth15:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
SunderlandMost likelyBournemouth win · 45%
Best price2.07 Betano
Prediction
45%1Bournemouthmarket 48%
27%XDrawmarket 26%
28%2Sunderlandmarket 26%
Bournemouth-2.9 ppDraw+1.3 ppSunderland+1.5 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Bournemouthpays 3% more than the typical book | Drawpays 6% more than the typical book | Sunderlandpays 10% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.07best | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Betvictor | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.06 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
| Onexbet | 2.04 | 3.75best | 3.85best |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.62 | 3.62 |
| Sbo | 2.00 | 3.14 | 3.22 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Bournemouth at 2.07 (Betano).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Bournemouth
- L1-5CHE
- L0-1LIV
- D2-2BRE
- D2-2NEW
- D1-1EVE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Sunderland
- L0-2BRI
- L3-5MC
- L0-2ARS
- D1-1BRE
- W1-0FUL
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Bournemouth
No reported absences.
Sunderland
No reported absences.
Head to head
Bournemouth 0Draws 1Sunderland 1
- BOU 1-1 SUN
- SUN 3-2 BOU
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Bournemouth
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.3last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.43last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.35last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.7last 10
- Shots
- 13.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.6last 10
- Fouls
- 12.9last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.5last 10
Sunderland
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.5last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.49last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.41last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 4 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 4.4last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 12.0last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.1last 10
Line movement
Bournemouth—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Sunderland—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Bournemouth result here, shaped mainly by Attacking xG form (away) and Recent form (away). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Attacking xG form (away)1.96Recent form (away)1.64League id39.0Pi-rating edge0.29Goal drought (away)1.00Defensive xG form (away)1.60
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.