Brentford vs Manchester City prediction
Premier LeagueRound 14
Brentford16:00
Sat 5 Dec
Prediction T-24hUpcoming
Manchester CityMost likelyManchester City win · 38%
Oddbert's view
Most likely: Manchester City win
Oddbert gives Manchester City a 38% chance of winning.
36%Brentford
26%Draw
38%Manchester City
In 100 matches like this, Manchester City would win about 38. In the other 62 or so, Manchester City doesn't win.
Dot chart of 100 matches like this: Brentford win 36, Draw 26, Manchester City win 38.
Each dot is one match out of 100 like this.
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Prediction
36%1BrentfordBrentford win
26%XDrawDraw
38%2Manchester CityManchester City win
No bookmaker price at forecast time — model onlyNo bookmaker had priced this match when this forecast was made, so it is our model on its own, with no market check.
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Nov 2026
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Match previewSummary
Brentford meet Manchester City. The model leans only slightly toward Manchester City in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Rest-days edge. See the probability bar above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
Odds comparisonBookmaker odds
Odds include the bookmaker's margin.
Words explained:
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker yet
We only show prices from bookmakers with a Danish licence (Spillemyndigheden).
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.Bookmakers' names are here for reference only. We don't link to them.
Bookmaker odds are turned off. You can turn them back on under Display at the bottom of the page.
Stake sizer
No price from a Danish-licensed bookmaker is recorded for this outcome right now, so we size nothing.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
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Even the most likely result, a win for Manchester City (38%), doesn't happen in about 62 of 100 matches like this.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Brentford
- L0-2BRI
- W2-0NF
- D1-1HC
- L1-2LIV
- D2-2AV
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Manchester City
- L1-3NF
- W3-2RL
- L0-1BRI
- L1-2AV
- W5-1AAF
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Brentford
Absence data is not available for this match.
Manchester City
Absence data is not available for this match.
Head to head
Brentford 0Draws 1Manchester City 3
- MC 3-0 BRE
- BRE 0-1 MC
- BRE 2-2 MC
- MC 2-1 BRE
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Brentford
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.6last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.51last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.47last 10
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- BTTS
- 6 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 5 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.9last 10
- Shots
- 13.1last 10
- Shots on target
- 3.6last 10
- Fouls
- 12.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 2.2last 10
Key players
- Thiago2G 2A10 apps
- K. Schade3G 0A10 apps
- K. Lewis-Potter2G 1A10 apps
Manchester City
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.8last 10
- xG for / game
- 2.18last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.33last 10
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 6.5last 10
- Shots
- 16.0last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.6last 10
- Fouls
- 10.2last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.3last 10
Key players
- E. Haaland9G 0A9 apps
- P. Foden4G 1A7 apps
- R. Cherki4G 0A9 apps
Line movement
Brentford—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Manchester City—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationSummary
The model leans only slightly toward Manchester City in what is close to a toss-up, shaped mainly by Pi-rating edge and Rest-days edge. This is our own view, not a proven edge. See the probability bar and factor chips above for the exact figures.
Written from the model's main factors with a fixed template, not by the AI. The probabilities come only from our forecast.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Pi-rating edge-0.41Defensive xG form (home)1.68Expected goals (away)1.58Attacking xG form (away)2.05Expected goals (home)1.34Attacking xG form (home)1.05
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.