Brighton vs Crystal Palace prediction
Premier LeagueRound 7
Brighton15:00
Sun 18 Oct
Prediction T-24h
Crystal PalaceMost likelyBrighton win · 58%
Best price1.63 Onexbet
Prediction
58%1Brightonmarket 62%
24%XDrawmarket 21%
18%2Crystal Palacemarket 17%
Brighton-3.1 ppDraw+2.4 ppCrystal Palace+0.8 pp
Market-anchored: consensus (book median) + model lean (max ±3 pp)
These are calibrated probabilities. See how closely they've matched real outcomes
Prediction as of 12 Oct 2026
Odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Brightonpays 4% more than the typical book | Drawpays 9% more than the typical book | Crystal Palacepays 4% more than the typical book |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Betvictor | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Dafabet | 1.57 | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 4.45 | 5.30 |
| Onexbet | 1.63best | 4.57best | 5.44best |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 4.55 | 5.26 |
| Sbo | 1.51 | 3.93 | 4.80 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Bookmaker names shown for reference only. No affiliate links.
Stake sizer
Two ways to size a hypothetical stake on the model's call — Brighton at 1.63 (Onexbet).
units
Stays in your browser — never sent to us.
Follow sizing
10.00units
Flat 1% of bankroll — the same rule as our public AI bankroll simulation.
Edge sizing
0 — no edge at this price
Quarter-Kelly at the best listed price, with a hard 5%-of-bankroll cap.
Hypothetical sizing in currency-neutral units, not betting advice. Predictions are probabilities, not guarantees. 18+.
Match context
Strength-adjusted form
Brighton
- W2-0SUN
- W3-0ARS
- W5-0COV
- D1-1LEE
- L3-4CHE
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Crystal Palace
- W3-1NF
- D0-0LEE
- L2-3IPS
- W3-2FUL
- L1-4MC
↑ stronger · = even · ↓ weaker opponent
Injuries & absences
Brighton
No reported absences.
Crystal Palace
No reported absences.
Head to head
Brighton 0Draws 1Crystal Palace 3
- BRI 0-1 CP
- CP 0-0 BRI
- CP 2-1 BRI
- BRI 1-3 CP
Recent form
Recent form — context only, not a tip.
Brighton
Goals
- Scored / game
- 2.2last 10
- Conceded / game
- 1.2last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.96last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.51last 10
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- BTTS
- 3 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 7 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 5.7last 10
- Shots
- 16.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 5.3last 10
- Fouls
- 11.6last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.9last 9
Crystal Palace
Goals
- Scored / game
- 1.4last 10
- Conceded / game
- 2.1last 10
- xG for / game
- 1.47last 10
- xG against / game
- 1.99last 10
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- BTTS
- 7 / 10
- Over 2.5
- 8 / 10
Match stats
- Corners
- 3.3last 10
- Shots
- 11.7last 10
- Shots on target
- 4.3last 10
- Fouls
- 8.5last 10
- Yellow cards
- 1.4last 9
Line movement
Brighton—
No line movement recorded yet
Draw—
No line movement recorded yet
Crystal Palace—
No line movement recorded yet
Under the hood
How the model sees this match — the drivers and, after full-time, how the prediction scored.
Why this prediction
ExplanationAI · grounded
The model leans toward a Brighton result here, shaped mainly by Defensive xG form (home) and Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage). The probabilities come from the model — the prose only narrates them.
The AI writes the prose. It never produces or adjusts a probability — those come only from the model.
How we make these predictionsTop model factors
Defensive xG form (home)1.81Elo difference (team-tuned home advantage)246Pi-rating edge0.52Clean-sheet streak (home)3.00League id39.0Home advantage (team-tuned)70.3
The driver chips attribute the gradient-boosted component of an ensemble whose headline is additionally anchored to the market where a consensus exists — they explain that part of the number, not all of it.